Final Central Scouting Ratings and the NHL Lottery

The 2012 NHL Draft Lottery will take place today at 8 p.m., ET.

Per NHL rules, the club selected in the Draft Lottery may not move up more than four positions in the draft order. Thus, the only clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five teams with the lowest regular-season point totals, or the clubs that acquired an eligible club’s first-round draft pick. No club will move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Lottery.

Based on team finish, the percentage chance of being selected in the Draft Lottery is:
Columbus Blue Jackets - 25.0%
Edmonton Oilers - 18.8%
Montreal Canadiens - 14.2%
New York Islanders - 10.7%
Toronto Maple Leafs - 8.1%
Anaheim Ducks - 6.2%
Minnesota Wild - 4.7%
Carolina Hurricanes - 3.6%
Winnipeg Jets - 2.7%
Tampa Bay Lightning - 2.1%
Washington Capitals (from Colorado) - 1.5%
Buffalo Sabres - 1.1%
Dallas Stars - 0.8%
Calgary Flames - 0.5%

The following is a summary of the impact on the order of selection since its introduction in 1995:

NHL DRAFT DRAWING HISTORY

Year Selected Effect On Draft Order Player Selected
1995 Los Angeles Moved from 7th to 3rd D Aki Berg
1996 Ottawa Retained 1st selection D Chris Phillips
1997 Boston Retained 1st selection C Joe Thornton
1998 Tampa Bay Moved from 3rd to 1st via trades C Vincent Lecavalier
1999 Chicago Moved from 8th to 4th RW Pavel Brendl *
2000 NY Islanders Moved from 5th to 1st G Rick DiPietro
2001 Atlanta Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Ilya Kovalchuk
2002 Florida Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Rick Nash **
2003 Florida Moved from 4th to 1st G Marc-Andre Fleury ***
2004 Washington Moved from 3rd to 1st LW Alex Ovechkin
2005 Pittsburgh n/a C Sidney Crosby
2006 St. Louis Retained 1st selection D Erik Johnson
2007 Chicago Moved from 5th to 1st RW Patrick Kane
2008 Tampa Bay Retained 1st selection C Steven Stamkos
2009 NY Islanders Retained 1st selection C John Tavares
2010 Edmonton Retained 1st selection LW Taylor Hall
2011 New Jersey Moved from 8th to 4th D Adam Larsson
* NY Rangers obtained Chicago's pick in a trade (via Vancouver and Tampa Bay). The Rangers selected RW Pavel Brendl fourth overall.
** Columbus obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Blue Jackets selected LW Rick Nash first overall.
*** Pittsburgh obtained Florida's pick in a trade. The Penguins selected G Marc-Andre Fleury first overall.

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Nail Yakupov of the Ontario Hockey League's Sarnia Sting has been tabbed the top North American skater eligible for 2012 NHL Draft by NHL Central Scouting.

After Yakupov it was determined that defenseman Ryan Murray of the Everett Silvertips would supplant center Mikhail Grigorenko of the Quebec Remparts as the No. 2 skater on the list. Grigorenko was slotted at No. 3, followed by Sarnia center Alex Galchenyuk and Moose Jaw Warriors defenseman Morgan Rielly.

North American Skaters
RANK PLAYER TEAM LEAGUE HEIGHT WEIGHT POSITION
1 YAKUPOV, NAIL SARNIA OHL 5' 10.5" 189 RW
2 MURRAY, RYAN EVERETT WHL 6' 0.5" 195 D
3 GRIGORENKO, MIKHAIL QUEBEC QMJHL 6' 3.0" 200 C
4 GALCHENYUK, ALEX SARNIA OHL 6' 0.5" 198 C
5 RIELLY, MORGAN MOOSE JAW WHL 5' 11.5" 190 D
6 CECI, CODY OTTAWA OHL 6' 2.5" 207 D
7 FAKSA, RADEK KITCHENER OHL 6' 2.5" 203 C
8 MAATTA, OLLI LONDON OHL 6' 1.5" 202 D
9 TROUBA, JACOB USA U-18 USHL 6' 2.0" 193 D
10 REINHART, GRIFFIN EDMONTON WHL 6' 3.75" 197 D
11 DUMBA, MATHEW RED DEER WHL 5' 11.75" 173 D

European Skaters
1 FORSBERG, FILIP LEKSAND SWEDEN-2 6' 2.0" 181 C
2 TERAVAINEN, TEUVO JOKERIT FINLAND 5' 11.0" 165 LW
3 COLLBERG, SEBASTIAN FROLUNDA SWEDEN 5' 11.0" 176 RW
4 LINDHOLM, HAMPUS ROGLE JR. SWE-JR. 6' 2.5" 196 D
5 HERTL, TOMAS SLAVIA CZREP 6' 2.0" 198 C

North American Goaltenders
1 SUBBAN, MALCOLM BELLEVILLE OHL 6' 1.0" 188
2 WHITNEY, BRANDON VICTORIAVILLE QMJHL 6' 4.5" 196
3 PATERSON, JAKE SAGINAW OHL 6' 1.5" 183

European Goaltenders
1 VASILEVSKI, ANDREI UFA 2 RUSSIA-JR. 6' 3.25" 204
2 DANSK, OSCAR BRYNAS JR. SWE-JR. 6' 2.5" 186
3 KORPISALO, JOONAS JOKERIT JR. FINLAND-JR. 6' 1.5" 163

wow in the space of two years florida could have had Rick Nash and Marc-Andre Fleury

Weak draft class this year wonder who will find the diamond in the rough?

NYR_UK_Marc wrote:Weak draft class this year wonder who will find the diamond in the rough?

Just curious, what makes you say that? I haven't paid a great deal of attention to it yet but the bits I have read seem to suggest it is a pretty deep draft all in all.....

NYR_UK_Marc wrote:Weak draft class this year wonder who will find the diamond in the rough?

Detroit....... they normally do

Congratulations Edmonton with the 1st pick for the 3rd year on the trot!

Will they take Yakupov? Will they trade down? Will they just get on and win something? Who knows!

and your defending champions of losers are......

I hear talk that the oilers are after d-men

mc_homer wrote:

NYR_UK_Marc wrote:Weak draft class this year wonder who will find the diamond in the rough?

Just curious, what makes you say that? I haven't paid a great deal of attention to it yet but the bits I have read seem to suggest it is a pretty deep draft all in all.....

I always think a lot of hot air is spoken with regards to the prospects but anyway - from what I've read there's supposed to be some real talent at the top but not so much else. And of course Yakupov is head and shoulders above everyone else...

rugby-leafhockeyrocker wrote:and your defending champions of losers are......

I hear talk that the oilers are after d-men

Yeah, being stacked with forward talent will only take you so far. Probably better to have great defence in the modern NHL.

Well I have been following this draft and the scouts seem to think this is a good draft class with the top 20 (!) picks projected to be NHL calibre in the near future. It is heavily loaded with D-men with Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Griogorenko and Fosberg being the only forwards likely to go in the top 15.

Edmonton need D and could trade down. Tambellini has already fired his first trade shots saying he expects lots of movement this season and indicating that Columbus might want the #1 pick (who wouldn't). I think Ryan Murray may pip Yakupov is Edmonton and/or Columbus stick with what they got.

BuffonIdol wrote:Well I have been following this draft and the scouts seem to think this is a good draft class with the top 20 (!) picks projected to be NHL calibre in the near future. It is heavily loaded with D-men with Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Griogorenko and Fosberg being the only forwards likely to go in the top 15.

Edmonton need D and could trade down. Tambellini has already fired his first trade shots saying he expects lots of movement this season and indicating that Columbus might want the #1 pick (who wouldn't). I think Ryan Murray may pip Yakupov is Edmonton and/or Columbus stick with what they got.

I haven't heard that, Buff. But whoever picks first will take Nail.

I don't really get the excitement over the youngsters. There's so many 'ifs' involved. Who on earth knows what sort of career an 18 year old is going to have. So many 1st rounders never amount to anything more than mediocre.

Depends on which view you take. Are you a GM who selects the best player on the board or the best player for your organisation. If Edmonton does not shift the #1 pick then there is no argument about it... Murray is the better fit for them. Doesn't mean they wont pick Nail but I think it will be a closer call for Tambellini than some think!

BuffonIdol wrote:Depends on which view you take. Are you a GM who selects the best player on the board or the best player for your organisation. If Edmonton does not shift the #1 pick then there is no argument about it... Murray is the better fit for them. Doesn't mean they wont pick Nail but I think it will be a closer call for Tambellini than some think!

Tbh, I don't think GMs think like that. Think of a player as simply an asset that has a particular value. You're going to pick the most valuable asset available. Then of course then you can trade said asset for one of an equal value. If the Oilers don't really want Yaku they pick him anyway and trade or (more likely) trade down and get a good return for the pick. You don't pick 1st and take the lesser asset (Murray or whoever else).

Perhaps there isn't much of a difference between Yaku and Murray in which case ignore the above; but my understanding is that Nail is head and shoulders above the rest in this year's draft so you'd have to take him if he's there.

I think the likelihood is they will pick Yakupov, and then trade either Yak or RNH, whoever performs worse in camp...

All the mock drafts have Edmonton trading down to #2 and picking Murray. Just saying I don't think Edmonton want Yakupov.

If you were Howson what would you package with the #2 pick to move up?

I have no knowledge on Nash and his trade clauses, However Im going with a speculative edm 1st, hemsky and a baconator for cbj 1st and Nash

BuffonIdol wrote:All the mock drafts have Edmonton trading down to #2 and picking Murray. Just saying I don't think Edmonton want Yakupov.

If you were Howson what would you package with the #2 pick to move up?

Yeah fair enough - as long as they're getting good value for their number 1 pick.

If I was the Oilers GM I'd be really trying to stretch my Jackets counterpart. And if no agreement can be reached simply take Nail. Nice position to be in!

Ronnie, yeah the Oilers have it very sweet, it is like choosing between $1,000,000 or 20,000 Vietnamese Dong.

Pete, Nash has a NMC which means he can dictate a list of clubs he will move to (10). We have no idea if Edmonton is on that list, though I imagine he is allowed to edit it.

sportsportsport wrote:I have no knowledge on Nash and his trade clauses, However Im going with a speculative edm 1st, hemsky and a baconator for cbj 1st and Nash

Baconator makes that deal a bit lopsided....

mc_homer wrote:

sportsportsport wrote:I have no knowledge on Nash and his trade clauses, However Im going with a speculative edm 1st, hemsky and a baconator for cbj 1st and Nash

Baconator makes that deal a bit lopsided....

Too true. What if CBJ added a double stack the other way?

Hmmmm we might be getting somewhere now. I do feel there needs to be gravy in there somewhere however.....